Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future climate change projections in the Baro River Basin
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract This study evaluated the performance of five Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs from Coupled Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing historical precipitation and temperature. Observational data National Meteorological Agency are used for model evaluation bias correction. Then, projections representative GCMs to understand future climate (2031–2060) Baro River Basin under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5) with respect datasets (1985–2014). Statistical metrics (percent bias, root mean square error, coefficient determination) assess model's temperature Compromise Programming (CP) was ranking GCMs. GFDL-CM4, INM-CM5-0, INM-CM4-8 models precipitation; CMCC-ESM2, MRI-ESM2-0, maximum temperature; INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0 minimum were selected based on their better simulation. The projected annual shows increases 6% SSP2-4.5 16.46% SSP5-8.5. show 1.43 1.96 °C SSP2-4.5, 1.81 3.11 SSP5-8.5, respectively. Overall, ensemble three outperforms all when utilising
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Water and Climate Change
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2040-2244', '2408-9354']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.032